Effect of Nigeria Macro Economy on Share Price Value Determination
INTRODUCTION
Stock market reacts in response of various factors ranging from macro economic, political and socio-cultural behavior of any country. Like any other stock market the Nigerian Stock exchange also reacts either positively or negatively by a number of factors occurring within or without the macroeconomic system. A stock exchange is an organized institution where the securities of joint stock companies are traded freely and the prices are determined by the forces of supply and demand. In simple, it is a place where buyers and sellers come together to exchange their holdings (shares, bonds, derivatives etc.) during on business hours.
Investment in equity shares in the stock exchange is one of the major avenues of investment that yields considerable returns to investors. It is also a source of finance for the capital requirements of firms. Returns from such equity investments are subject to vary owing to the movement of share prices, which depend on various factors which could be internal or firm specific such as earnings per share, dividends and book value or macro economic factors such as crude oil price/subsidy removal interest rate, GDP, inflation, government regulations and Foreign Exchange Rate (FOREX). Share price is used as a benchmark to gauge performance of a firm and its variations as an indicator of the economic health or otherwise of a firm hence the need to be conversant with the factors that could adversely affect share prices.
However, this study will provide an overview of the Nigeria macro economy and its effect on bank share value. This study will also make use of Capital Asset Pricing Model CAPM couple with the use of past stock market price and dividend payout to determine the value of the bank stock. The valuation from this analysis in this study will form a basis for signifying if the stock is overpriced or under priced. Recommendations will also be made on if the bank stock should or shouldn’t be bought for more or less.